Syria's Shifting Sands: Investment Opportunities in a Contested Future

In this exclusive explainer, our Editor, Wesley, delves into how Syria’s unprecedented post-Assad transition is dramatically reshaping regional power dynamics. Amidst the persistent political and security risks, a new scramble for influence has begun, driven by competing regional and global actors who are simultaneously unlocking novel investment opportunities. 

Image: Anadolu Ajansı 

Executive Summary 

• Syria’s nascent post-Assad landscape is defined by intensified competition among Turkey, Gulf states, China, Russia, and Iran, each vying for influence through strategic trade, critical infrastructure, and security partnerships. 

• Multi-billion-dollar deals in energy, transport, telecommunications, and real estate are actively positioning Syria for a fragile economic recovery, though progress remains highly vulnerable to political instability and persistent security threats. 

• Despite a surge in foreign investment, Syria grapples with unresolved debt disputes, strained governance, and ongoing security challenges, necessitating that astute investors adopt phased, risk-mitigated strategies for engagement. 

The swift collapse of the al-Assad regime in late 2024 sent shockwaves across the Middle East. As the dust settles, a new, volatile Syria is emerging—a chessboard for competing global and regional powers eager to fill the vacuum. This explainer examines the high-stakes game of influence, where trade deals and infrastructure projects are the new currency of power.  

Syria has long served as a central stage for regional powers, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, as well as global powers like Russia, the U.S. and, more recently, China. From a market access perspective, the fall of the al-Assad regime marks a turning point in the country’s relations with foreign governments and business stakeholders, opening new avenues for investment and reconstruction. This new leaf has been earmarked with heightened risks and uncertainties on all fronts.  

A Regional Battle for Global Power? 

Among the regional powers, Turkey has rapidly emerged as a pivotal player in shaping Syria’s post-Assad trajectory. Its geographic proximity, deep historical ties, and strategic investments have uniquely positioned Ankara to capitalize on the shifting political landscape. Turkey's deepening relationship with Syria’s new leadership presents unprecedented opportunities for expanded trade and cooperation in energy and defense. For instance, in August 2025, both countries formalized a significant Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). Under this agreement, Turkey committed to providing Syria with modern weapons systems, essential logistical support, and comprehensive military training, explicitly aimed at restructuring and modernizing Syria’s armed forces. This defense pact signals Ankara's clear intent to mold Syria’s political transition, while simultaneously bolstering its efforts to counter Kurdish armed groups like the People's Protection Units (YPG) along the Turkey-Syria border, which it deems a direct security threat. 

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors are also proving to be key drivers of Syria’s post-Assad recovery, skillfully aligning reconstruction efforts with broader strategic realignments. Riyadh, for example, spearheaded an estimated $6.4 billion in groundbreaking deals during the July 2025 Investment Forum in Damascus. These agreements span critical sectors including infrastructure, real estate, telecommunications, agriculture, and finance, notably involving the revival of three crucial cement plants and new ventures in telecom and fintech. Earlier Gulf capital had already played a significant role in financing pivotal energy and port projects, and crucially, in clearing Syria’s outstanding World Bank debt, paving the way for further investment. Increasingly, Syria has emerged as an emerging battleground for Turkey-Saudi Arabia’s strategic competition for regional influence.  

A particularly significant deal was sealed in July 2025 with the $800 million agreement for Emirati logistics and port management giant DP World to manage the vital Tartus port. Subsequently, in August 2025, Syria finalized a further 12 agreements totaling an impressive $14 billion. These landmark contracts include a $4 billion agreement with Qatar’s UCC Holding for the construction of a brand-new, state-of-the-art international airport in Damascus, and a $2 billion deal with the UAE’s National Investment Corporation to develop an ambitious subway system for the capital. This sustained economic activity, robustly bolstered by investments from Gulf nations and their corporate entities, clearly indicates a trajectory toward stronger regional integration for Syria, firmly led by the GCC. 

These massive investments in infrastructure, real estate, telecommunications, and transportation projects hold immense strategic importance for Gulf states. In a post-Assad Syria, where the economy still lags and commercial opportunities remain limited, such markets represent long-term prospects for Gulf companies to expand, diversify, and secure future growth. For Saudi Arabia, channelling capital into highly visible civilian projects helps strengthen its regional push to be a regional leader, rebranding the kingdom as a reliable partner in stability and development. Unlike direct weapons systems deals, which risk provoking major powers or violating international sanctions, investments in civilian sectors are strategically perceived as "safe bets" that still powerfully advance broader geopolitical goals. Furthermore, control over critical ports and infrastructure provides not only economic benefits but also significant strategic leverage, allowing Gulf states like the UAE and Qatar to oversee vital trade flows and profoundly enhance their regional influence, effectively countering rivals such as Turkey or Iran. 

The Transnational Scale of Syria’s Regional Power Conflict 

China’s role, though more recently prominent, directly reflects its expansive long-term ambitions for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In May 2025, the Syrian General Authority for Land and Maritime Ports signed a 20-year MoU with the Chinese company, Fidi Contracting. This landmark agreement grants Fidi operational rights over a combined one million square meters in free zones in Homs and Adra, earmarked for an integrated industrial hub and a significant commercial and services project. Beijing strategically frames these investments as a crucial part of its westward trade corridor, forging a vital link between Mediterranean access and Asian supply chains, while simultaneously cementing robust political ties with Damascus as a strategic counterweight to entrenched U.S. and E.U. influence. China’s increasing ties with Iran are perceived as part of a broader, deliberate strategy to reshape regional alliances, leveraging Iran’s established presence. 

Prior to the Assad regime’s fall, Tehran had extended approximately $6.6 billion in credit and secured substantial stakes in Syrian telecoms, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure, leveraging sectoral control and accumulated debt to consolidate its influence. However, relations have since deteriorated sharply. In December 2024, Iran controversially demanded repayment of an estimated $30 billion in debt from the previous government, while the new Damascus administration fiercely countered with a staggering $300 billion claim for war damages directly attributed to Iranian-backed militias. The ongoing political transition in Syria and the current bilateral stalemate between the two countries have effectively halted previously planned projects, leaving bilateral trade and business opportunities with highly limited prospects in the short and medium term. 

Despite these promising economic prospects, Syria’s political stability remains inherently uncertain. The country is in a fragile state of political transition, with new electoral structures still being established. While economic recovery is undeniably showing signs of momentum, driven by crucial assistance from financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and significant investment pledges from Turkish, Gulf, Chinese, and increasingly Western partners, it remains severely constrained by unresolved debt disputes and weak governance. Following renewed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) attacks in southern Syria in May 2025 and pointed Israeli airstrikes in Damascus in July 2025, security threats in the country are highly likely to persist. Ultimately, a deepening humanitarian crisis— driven by funding cuts, drought, and unexploded ordnance —continues to strain essential services and dangerously exacerbate instability across the nation. 

While carefully evaluating the complex political, regulatory, and security risks, investors should strategically focus on high-potential industries robustly supported by Saudi Arabian, GCC, Turkish, and Western initiatives, particularly in energy, infrastructure, transport, and telecommunications developments. Establishing astute strategic alliances with reliable regional and global organisations, and rigorously implementing phased, risk-adjusted investment approaches, will be paramount to reducing exposure and promoting long-term, sustainable participation in Syria’s rapidly changing market.  

If you would like to learn more about what this means for your business, please contact us at ceo@northstar-insights.com