Assessing Japan-Turkey Collaboration in Defence Technology

In this explainer, our Asia Pacific - Lead Analyst Juliana and Editor Wesley explore how Japan-Turkey defence cooperation is opening new pathways for cross-regional industrial collaboration, while divergent geopolitical alignments continue to limit predictability and stability. 

Image: C Savunma 

Executive Summary 

• Japan’s landmark defense outreach to Turkey creates new pathways for collaboration in aerospace, drones, and AI-enabled defense systems, linking two fast-growing markets. 

• Japan’s push to double defense spending aligns with Turkey’s cost-effective unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) exports, creating opportunities for co-production, joint R&D, and technology licensing. 

• The Tokyo-Ankara partnership could accelerate Japan’s capability development while boosting Turkey’s competitiveness in next-generation drone and robotics markets, offering strong returns for industry stakeholders. 

• Geopolitical volatility remains to be a significant risk factor. Turkey’s balancing act with Russia, ongoing regional interventions, and potential diplomatic frictions could undermine investor confidence and limit long-term stability.  

  
  

Tokyo and Ankara forge new defense and technology ties 

On August 19, Japan’s Defense Minister’s visit to Turkey marked not only a diplomatic milestone but also the opening of a new defense and technology channel linking Asia and the Middle East. Japan’s Defense Minister, Gen Nakatani, embarked on the first-ever official visit by a Japanese defense minister to Turkey, signaling a notable expansion of bilateral defense engagement. Although no official defense agreement was established during this event, Gen Nakatani and his Turkish counterpart, Yasar Guler, agreed to enhance defense collaboration and to conduct consultations with top defense officials regarding prospective partnerships in defense equipment and technologies.  

The Japan Defense Minister’s official tour positions Ankara as a critical bridge between two fast-growing defense markets at opposite ends of Eurasia, enabling Tokyo to tap into Turkey’s dynamic aerospace and unmanned systems sectors. By visiting Turkish defense hubs such as Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) and Baykar, Nakatani underscored Japan’s intent to incorporate Turkish drone technology, signaling a move from diplomacy to practical industrial cooperation through talks on exports and joint development. 

A cross-regional defense market dynamic through Japan and Turkey? 

As East Asian defense budgets surge, particularly in Japan, coupled with demand for unmanned and AI-enabled systems, new commercial opportunities are emerging across the Asia Pacific. This shift is mirrored by Turkey’s sharp rise as a global drone exporter to the Middle East. Japan, aiming to double its defense budget to 2% of GDP by 2027, is expanding investments in long-range missiles and unmanned aerial, surface, and underwater drones to strengthen military autonomy in response to growing tensions in the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea.  

Simultaneously, Turkey continues to solidify its position as a dominant actor in the global unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) market, with Baykar accounting for approximately 65% of global UAV exports. This convergence of interests underscores an increasing cooperation within defense technologies ecosystems. Japan’s defense establishment is expanding procurement and partnership opportunities, while Turkish camera-ready drone platforms and economically viable models create new avenues for cross-regional collaboration. This, we assess, is indicative of an emerging trend where Global South cooperation takes center stage. 

Strategic Wins: What This Partnership Means for Both Nations 

The partnership between Japan and Turkey provides a complementary combination of strategic diversification and technological progress. For Japan, its collaboration with Turkey enables the country to diversify its dependence on the U.S. and European defense sectors, acquiring access to combat-proven platforms that can be swiftly integrated. Leveraging Turkey’s UAV expertise, Tokyo may accelerate its own unmanned systems development, effectively bridging essential capability gaps more efficiently than relying solely on domestic R&D. 

Turkey’s partnership with Japan enhances Ankara’s strategic significance as a conduit between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, solidifying its position as a cross-regional defense hub. Access to Japanese investments and cutting-edge research in AI, sensors, and robotics could augment Turkey’s innovation capabilities, particularly in the next-generation drone technology. Co-production or technology licensing prospects would yield economic advantages, consistent with Turkey’s long-term objective to diminish import reliance while enhancing the global competitiveness of its domestic defense sector. 

Navigating the Geopolitical Minefield: Risks and Limitations 

Despite the promise of deeper technological and commercial collaboration, the Japan-Turkey defense relationships face structural risks. Although both countries are US allies, Ankara’s balancing act complicates matters: while it condemned Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, it has refrained from joining Western sanctions and continues to maintain cordial relations with Moscow. This dual posture may generate friction with Japan and its Western allies, particularly as Tokyo aligns more closely with the U.S. and Europe in countering Russia’s activities in Ukraine and the wider Eurasian space.   

Furthermore, Turkey’s active military intervention in regional conflicts from Syria to Libya also presents diplomatic and reputational risks for Tokyo. Japanese defense technology linked, even indirectly, to contested Turkish operations could stir diplomatic criticism or undermine Japan’s ability to portray itself as a neutral actor in the Middle East. 

Thus, for investors, this partnership poses both high-potential opportunities and significant risks. By aligning Japan’s drive to modernize its defense sector with Turkey’s established strength in UAV production, the collaboration could open lucrative avenues in drone technology, co-production, and AI-enabled defense systems. Yet these prospects may be constrained by geopolitical volatility, fueled by Turkey’s cautious stance toward Russia and its active involvement in regional conflicts where Japan seeks to maintain neutrality.  

If you would like to learn more about what this means for your business, please contact us at ceo@northstar-insights.com